President Jonathan's approval ratings drop by 10%

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Latest governance poll results made available to IBPulse.com by NOIPolls for the month of February 2014 have revealed that 51% of the adult Nigerian population approve of the job performance of President Goodluck Jonathan over the past month. This rating represents a 10-point decline in his approval rating from January 2014 (61%).  


More findings revealed that the President had an “average” ranking for his performance on Economy, Health, Agriculture & Food security, and Transportation amongst others; while he was ranked “very poor” for his performance on  Security, Job creation, Power and Education in the month of February. Furthermore, the results revealed that 40% of Nigerians experienced slight improvements in power supply to their households over the past one month. However, this figure represents a 4-point decline when compared to January, showing declining electricity supply to households. These are some of the key findings from the Governance Snap Poll conducted in week of February 24th 2014.

These findings represent the February 2014 poll results of the monthly governance poll conducted by NOIPolls to gauge the opinions and perceptions of Nigerians regarding the approval rating of the President, the performance of the President on key elements of his transformation agenda, and the state of power supply in the country.

Respondents to the poll were asked three specific questions. The first sought to gauge the perception of Nigerians on the performance of President Goodluck Jonathan over the past 1 month. Respondents were asked: Do you approve or disapprove of the job performance of President Jonathan in the past 1 month? Findings reveal that 51% (35%+16%) of respondents approve of the President’s job performance, where 35% approve and 16% strongly approve. In addition, 27% of the respondents disapprove of the President’s job performance, representing a 10-point increase from January 2014 (17%). Similarly, 22% remain neutral as they neither approve nor disapprove.

An assessment of the President’s performance based on geo-political zone indicates that the South-East zone (84%) has the highest proportion of respondents that approve of the President’s job performance, followed by the South-South zone (63%).  In addition, the South-West zone (37%) has the highest proportion of respondents that disapprove of his performance while the North-West (26%) zone accounted for the highest proportion of respondents that remained neutral on the president’s approval rating.


Furthermore, when these findings are compared with the previous poll conducted in January 2014, there was a significant 10-point decline in the President’s job approval rating. Year on year analysis shows that current results also represent a slight 4-point decline when compared to the President’s approval rating in February 2013 which stood at 54%.
 



To assess the performance of the president on key areas of his transformation agenda, respondents were asked: On a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is very poor and 5 is excellent, how would you rate the performance of President Jonathan in the following areas?  (1) Job Creation (2) Power (3) Economy (4) Health (5) Education (6) Agriculture (7) Transportation (8) Foreign relations and (9) Security. 

On the 5-point scale, the president had an average performance of 3 in Economy, Health, Agriculture & Food security, Transportation and Foreign policy & Diplomacy while on Job creation, Power, Education and Security, the president was ranked 1 which signifies a very poor performance.  



A comparison of the current findings with January 2014 results reveal that the President’s performance rating on Job creation, Power and Education declined from 3 to 1 in February.  Furthermore, his rating on security dropped from a good ranking of 4 to 1 in February; this drop may be attributed to the recent spate of attacks by the Boko Haram sect in some North Eastern States.
 


 

Finally, in order to access the situation of power in Nigeria within the past month, respondents were asked: How would you describe power in your area in the past 1 month? The results show that the overall majority of Nigerians (40%: 26%+14%) noticed slight improvement in the condition of power over the past month, where 26% experienced a slight improvement and 14% experienced very much improvement. However, these figures illustrate a 4-point drop in the proportion of respondents that experienced an improvement in January 2014 (44%). Furthermore, 24% of the respondents say “there’s no difference at all”, 20% indicated “it remains bad” while 16% of the respondents confirm that it “is very bad and has gone worse”.

From the standpoint of geo-political zones, the North-East and the South-East zones with 48% each, both accounted for the highest percentage of respondents that experienced an improvement in their power supply, while the North-West zone accounted for the highest number of respondents that  said “there’s no difference at all” or “it remains bad” with 24% and 34% respectively. Additionally, the South-South zone (20%) has the largest proportion of respondents that indicated “it’s very bad, had gone to worse”.

When these current findings are compared with the results obtained in January 2014, there was a 4-point decline in the proportion of respondents that experienced an improvement in the condition of power in February.



In conclusion, the results from the current poll have revealed that despite the 10-point decline, 51% of adult Nigerians approve of the job performance of the president over the past month. More findings revealed that the President had an average performance ranking on Economy, Health, Agriculture & Food security, and Transportation; while he had a poor performance ranking on Security, Job creation, Power, and Education. Furthermore, the majority of Nigerians (40%) experienced slight improvements in the situation of power supply to their households over the past one month; however, this figure represents a 4-point drop in this group. Finally the decline in the approval rating of the President may be indicative of the noted decline in power supply in February, when compared to January; as well as the recent spate of attacks in North Eastern Nigeria, which may have negatively impacted his rating on security.

Survey Methods
The opinion poll was conducted in February 24th to 26th 2014. It involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 1,000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of plus or minus 3%.  NOIPolls Limited, No. 1 for country-specific polling services in West Africa, which works in technical partnership with the Gallup Organisation (USA), to conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria.

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